Starliner's future

The contract specialist who OK'd Starliner development as a fixed price contract should have quoted the Solyndra Affair at DOE as a reason not to try to build this on the cheap. It is time to renegotiate, make Boeing whole and fund whatever is needed to get a second test vehicle, with all problems resolved, launched during Crew 9's stay. Send up two NASA astronauts and the members of Crew 9 where were bumped and switch out Butch and Sunny.

Can we afford this? Absolutely. We cannot afford not to do it. 

I suspect that there is little standing in the way between Kursk and Moscow. A little pressure will mean freedom for the ethnic minority regions and the end of the Russian Federation. Putin's demographic profile is not favorable.

It is time to redraw the boundaries of Asia, north, middle and south. Some parts of Russia can go to China, others to Mongolia - with freedom for the Uyghurs and inner Mongolians as part of the deal. Throw in ending the ban on Chinese partnership in the international space world to sweeten the deal. We can have Astronauts who speak Chinese instead of Russian as a second space language. All things are possible.

Going to the Moon

1. Quit deorbiting tonnage. Never land Starship or Falcon S2. Reuse in space.

2. Put (at first) automated factories in lunar surface to process hydrogen and oxygen and use Starships to bring fuel back to Earth orbit to fuel:

a. Earth orbit operations, including snatching tonnage from LEO to a central orbital staging area and station

b. trans lunar injection tugs (Falcon S2) to move people and materials to lunar orbit, either in their own or to push Starships and planetary space stations.

3. Test feasibility and calibrate artificial gravity systems, ideally with inflatable modules, to prove we can actually travel to Mars or stay in orbit without vertigo.

4. Develop Moon Jumpers to land people and cargo on the surface and travel around the Moon with total reusability.

5. Develop land able modules for moon colonies with landing systems so that colonists can clear boulders from colony space to land them as a unit.

6. Russia will fall apart when Putin dies. Offer civil society help as Oblasts declare independence and take money from defense to space exploration, because every defense worker is a space geek at heart and, given the choice, that is what they would rather do - and where their skills are most useful.

Space Stations Beta Gamma and Delta

Why are we deorbiting anything launched into orbit? If it can be left in space and collected to a single point - Delta for Depot (as I wrote long ago), a Beta station can have workshops (hangers), crew quarters, tools and supplies and fuel. OK, 2 crew quarters, and maybe a nuclear reactor to power it instead of solar panels. 

Gamma is the station to test artificial gravity concepts at various distances from the center and spin velocities. Enough people say it cannot be done to test it ASAP. There is no trip to Mars - or even better - JPL style station around Mars (with families) until we work out artificial gravity.

No Starship should ever return to Earth. Use Dragon for that. No Falcon second stage should ever leave orbit, nor any Crew or Cargo Dragon Trunk. If every Starship becomes a space station component, we have really reached reusability.

NASA FY24 Budget Testimony

 House CSJ Appropriations Subcommittee, April 14, 2023

I write to request that the budget of NASA funding be increased by a factor of 3. One half of the increase would be used to fund the Artemis program. The other half would be spent on two projects: development of a space elevator and prototyping of a space station to test whether gravity generated by centrifugal force is actually practical. If it is not, then the goal of manned space flight cannot proceed past Artemis until some kind of constant boost propulsion system can be devised.

To pay for this funding, decrease  the appropriations for the Defense Department for RDT&E and Procurement. DoD spending cannot easily be converted to just any sort of program. It must fund a similar industrial base or spending for war cannot be reduced. For this reason, responsibility for funding NASA and the National Space Council would be overseen by the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee as part of a larger committee realignment.

How do we put up a space elevator? Inside the atmosphere there should be two stages. One will be firm, with the other retractable. Both would be designed and built by Sierra or a competing vendor who would develop inflatable modules. Modules would be  filled with helium. The lower, retractable stage would be withdrawn in the event of major storm events that may damage the entire system, including the geostationary station. The entire tube structure will be inflatable. 

Whether the retractable portion is in a single segment, or multiple segments, is a design issue. The lower segment will be assisted by helicopter structures for controlled retraction to the intake station on the Pacific Ocean surface. The upper segment would retract to the upper stable portion. Middle portions would be deflated, separated and parachute to the surface in case of emergency. Chutes would have glide functions and both autonomous and controlled functions for guidance toward recovery vessels outside the weather event.

Construction and reattachment would be accomplished with helicopter structures with rotors arrayed similar to current drone technology, with rotation units at each end, with structures at the mating point inward by one segment from mating points. Segments would be longer than those used for orbital stations. 

If necessary, these structures may be permanently in operation to support and control flexible sections and run by solar power generated (and stored) from the surface or by thorium reactors at the space based and surface portions.

Elevator tubes would transport one or more of the following: Steam, with heating at higher altitudes or gaseous hydrogen and oxygen; and vacuum to move small objects (the universe is full of it).

Steam tubes would be heated at altitude where condensation occurs naturally. Where it freezes, steam could be transferred to an automated section where it is allowed to do so and be transferred to to an additional pneumatic tube (which may also begin at the surface), to travel as cylinders of ice. Eventually, a larger pneumatic would be constructed to transport manned capsules and deflated and disassembled Sierra modules for construction. At some point, to the tube stacks will require some form of magnetic shielding to repel micro-meteorites and space junk.

On the way up the elevator, there will be habitats at lunar and Martian gravity for training and acclimation purposes. Initial construction of the geostationary port will be in LEO. At final construction, station will be lifted with the center of gravity constantly at GSO, with the small boosts as modules are built down as others are built up from the surface.

Centrifugal Gravity Test would contain fixed and inflatable elements. A hard module will be required for docking, power production (or integration from solar arrays) and for flywheel to add or break (and capture energy from) spin.

A series of small diameter Inflatable modules would be attached along two sides of one axis. At the end of each structure, there will be four to eight full size modules for crew attached at a single node for either one or two rings. Axial be modules will be inflated one at a time (on each side) until an optimal distance and rotational speed is discovered for each gravitational be level.

Eventually, should a rotational radius and speed prove viable, the follow-on station (or additions to the original station) would include a larger tube for a magnetic or pneumatic elevator, supplemented by smaller tubes for emergency egress. Additional axis would be added so that rings may be added with Lunar, Martian and Earth gravity habitation. Magnetic shielding will be added and air replaced with water, as above. 

The best first mission to Mars and any mission to Venus or a gas or ice giant should be a ringed station. Call it Orbital JPL. Such stations can do measurements and send probes into atmosphere or, for Mars and Luna, do what Gateway is planned to do - but with gravity and shielding. If we cannot make this work, there is no reason to continue with manned exploration. Even unmanned missions would be a waste of time. A large station in Jovian orbit, however, would be worth the effort.

To more easily fund space within the same allocation, transfer NASA and the National Space Council to the Defense Subcommittee so that reductions to defense research and procurement would be offset with increased budget for space exploration.

Ion drive to Mars

Assume a ship with

1.  an attached lander fueled with hydrogen and an oxidizer for descent and ascent and an orbital portion that functions as a space station with hinged modules rather than a torus so that it can spin in orbit but not in transit. 

2. A landing team would also functions as a backup crew for the boost stage, a main engineering crew, a farm crew and command crew and a science crew to analyze samples, build unmanned probes, etc.

3. Food production for the entire mission with hydroponics and lab grown meat

4. Assume Mars trip would be to the moon at each end, docking with an orbital station. Transfer to Earth orbital torus station from there, with lunar landing under power with modules and by catapult for ascent. and fuel modules to the lunar surface also from surface. 

5. Fuel modules would be produced on Moon, along with hydrogen reaction mass for ion engines. Modules would attach to Mars ships. 

6. Empty modules would be landed on Mars and converted to habitats. Some would be used as reaction mass for powered trips to Earth and back. Tanks for module conversion would need heat shielding, parachutes and balloons for landing. Eventually, an elevator would be built.

7.  Oxygen would be produced from regalith. Hydrogen would also be mined and be used as reaction mass.

Research questions:

1. How much hydrogen would be needed for 0.1 G acceleration. 

2. How much is required for 0.2 G for boost phase and 0.3 G gravity for deceleration with opposite speeds for return (assuming optimal orbital mechanics, as well as near optimal)? 

3. What about when hydrogen can be produced from martian soil (no fuel need be sent for return trip).

4. What percentage of ship weight and volume would be loaded fuel tanks, as well as expended empty tanks? 

5. What is ETD for each option?

6. For purposes and maximizing acceleration, how many ion plasma engines would be optimal?

Air Drop Booster

Last year after a Falcon launch, I mentioned that to replace stage one, any drop system must get to Match 8 at 40 miles up to replace the booster stage (as an air breather rather than being lox loaded).

An airdrop alternative would be done from a vehicle modeled after an SR-71 and the launched vehicle would have to include SRBs. They could either be rejected or sent to orbit with second stage, where both would stay, physics permitting, for use in construction of stations and interplanetary boosters. Nothing wasted. SpaceX may not like it, because it would displace Starship in some aspects - or maybe it might enhance it.

The more important factors are whether spinning stations are actually possible, given inner ear issues, and whether we can get hydrogen and oxygen to orbit for fuel via space elevator. See this for more information.

The insane potential of Pumped Storage Hydropower.

The heating of Barent's Sea, partly by air (in addition to Gulf Stream) was the tipping point. The new normal is 110 degree summer temperature in July in the southwest while Canada burns and pollutes the air in Canada and US.

Carbon dioxide is not the problem. Hot asphalt heated up the sea, which is heating up the Arctic, which is heating the global north, which heats Barent's Sea. The vicious cycle feeds itself. The point has tipped. Barring ending gasoline use, covering roads and parking with electric links for cars on bottom and grass/irrigation and solar panels on top, there will be no relief. Forget warming via carbon. Actual hot air is the problem to blame for hot gulf stream and surface temperature increase from air. Read Barent's Sea paper from nature.

People complementing themselves on being carbon neutral does not stop the crisis. Capping carbon usage to preindustrial levels or even global temperature to 1.5 degrees over that time period. The problem is that warming the sea that warmed the Arctic Ocean has been getting worse by one degree every year. A local problem.

Hunga Tonga likely disrupted the trade wind patterns causing La Nina caused drought, so the west and southwest are soon to be out of a water crisis. It was not warming after all.  Not every bad effect is about carbon. Maybe none of them are. The heated air coming from the East Coast megacity is what tipped the scales. Not CO2. 

The question is what will it take to cook the megacity heat done? Roofing over roads and parking lots, installing tethered electric and banning gasoline in urban areas and major highways is what will do it.

How many poor people in already hot or newly hot areas have to die before we act. How many irrigated farms and cities will be abandoned? Of course, some must be. There should be no farms in Arizona. Ever.

Warming with El Nino moisture may allow forests to develop that can make their own weather, or we can simply close down parts of the southwest as people flee anyway. And after a few years like this one in a row, they will flee. Not a bad thing 

Agriculture needs to become indoor, vertical and beef and pork lab grown. Probably chickens too (with artificial eggs). Sheep and goats are needed for clothing and cheese.

Anything that can be conveniently raised indoors (not factory farmed) or grown in a Mars mission or in orbit can be. Nothing else, including mass grain that depletes the earth, should be if it can be replaced.

Forget wheat and corn. Plant grass and let the earth heal itself. Also, ban high fructose corn syrup. It is a chemical, not a food. And forget soy too. Not needed if we can lab grown meat. MSG is also poison, as are many foods with high soy content. Also the oils (aside from olive and coconut). Trans fats are killing people too. If we can clone milk fat, we can have nice healthy butter.

The Absolute Worst Climate Change Solution Possible

There is no such thing as global warming. If the north gets warmer, the south gets cooler. The north, however, has gone past the tipping point. See the recent article on the Barents Sea where they found that not only does the Gulf Stream warm the sea (which is what affected polar ice and generated the current 110 degree temperature spikes), but also warming by air. We are in a negative feedback loop and there is only one solution, cool the air in Europe and especially in Boston to Richmond Megacity. It is one big strode with as many people as live on Java. This hot zone has done us in - since now the warmth from the Southwest will also go north through Canada to the Barents Sea and may melt Greenland in the process.

Turns out, the problem was never Carbon Dioxide, it was urban heat. We need to literally ban cars in urban areas and replace them with tethered electric vehicles that are linked to roofs above. The roof deck will have to be covered in grass, with irrigation streams and solar panel coverage (to run pumps to manage water in the system. We cannot use coal to power it - small reactor nuclear is both safe and reliable.

Barents Sea temp has gone up one degree per year (centigrade - 2 farenheit) for decades. Warming the atmosphere or the average global sea or land temp are irrelevant concepts. We heated up the water that heated up the Arctic past the point of no return - or at least no return to normal. Petroleum companies will resist the solution - but we have human suffering gong for us in Arizona and the Southwest. Also the South Central. Refineries will not be able to operate at the kind of cost that allows for the profit margins of Big Oil. 

The price of gasoline is fairly inelastic until it is not anymore. 110 degree plus temperatures get us to the kind of elasticity that parks cars on an individual basis. We have to shift any car that can be tethered to the electric grid, both in urban areas and highways. Gasoline can only be sold where tethering is not technically feasible.

This is not an if solution, it is a when.

As for building a Dyson sphere or any of that nonsense, there are plenty of higher level planets to be reincarnated to, if the people who have had Near Death Experiences can be relied on. Most of us are likely from one of them in one life or another. If people want advance tech, don't come back to earth in your next life.  According to some, the question of how many civilizations are more advanced than us is answered with "all of them." We cannot even agree amongst ourselves that God in not an asshole. It is more important to our evolution as a species in the galactic community than becoming "warp capable."

Arctic heat is coming our way. And fast!

The Arctic Ocean heat map seems to show that it is the Barents Sea that has warmed the Arctic, which has melted too much in summer, which has given us the new dominant weather patterns in the northern countries. The El Nino is most likely the disturbance of the long term La Nina drought pattern, with the likely mechanism for this disturbance being the Honga Tonga volcano - which changed the Trade Winds that drive Pacific heating. 

The question is, how did the Barents Sea get so warm? Answer that question, and you have cracked global warming (rather than global flooding and drought). Two separate systems.

I don't see Barents as cooling anytime soon - meaning we have reached the tipping point Climate has changed. It is not theoretical - and unless we ban gasoline in urban areas and for highway use - as well as concrete - we are stuck here. The operative question is how many people in the 110 degree weather zone have to die or flea before we do something like this?  

The first thing that will happen is the end to agriculture wherever the 110 degree heat has become the new normal. The only solution to staying there is indoor food plant growth and cloned meat and dairy (although goats and sheep may do good indoors. Growing pigs and cows that way has been a disaster.